Technical analysis : testing mat with using bist30 index

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Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İşletme Ana Bilim Dalı, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2016

Tezin Dili: İngilizce

Öğrenci: Yasin Emre Özcan

Danışman: ALİ ALTUĞ BİÇER

Özet:

Towards the end of the eighteenth century the financial information about stocks was scarce and the available information was generally unreliable. Thus technical analysis method due to these factors has emerged to understand the stock price movements and by this way to forecast the future prices of stocks. In technical analysis method past price movements and trading volume are drawn into the charts and possible future price movements are predicted. In this study firstly the purpose and field activity of Borsa Istanbul are described, the milestones and the markets in Borsa Istanbul are mentioned. Afterwards fundamental analysis and technical analysis are shortly explained as analysis methods in stock exchange and efficient market hypothesis which don’t accept the assumptions of these methods and is a criticism against these methods are shortly mentioned. In the next process charts, trends, formations and indicators used in technical analysis method are described in detail with examples. Finally a retrospective simulation regarding to MACD indicator which is one of the most used indicator at the present time, is made. A system is clarified and the system traded when MACD give the buy and sell signals. After getting the results, MACD returns and stock returns are compared annually and as a whole in the tested 5 years with using 24 stocks in BIST30 Index. As a conclusion of the study it is obtained that except for a few stocks and in general the MACD returns is less than the stock returns.