Electrical energy consumption forecasting for Turkey using grey forecasting technics with rolling mechanism

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Kusakci A. O., AYVAZ B.

2nd International Conference on Knowledge-Based Engineering and Innovation, KBEI 2015, Tehran, İran, 5 - 06 Kasım 2015, ss.8-13 identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1109/kbei.2015.7436013
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Tehran
  • Basıldığı Ülke: İran
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.8-13
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: grey forecasting, rolling mechanism, electricity energy consumption
  • İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The accuracy of electricity energy consumption prediction is an important issue effecting energy investment decisions as well as environmental policies. Although there are several forecasting techniques, selection of the most accurate technique is vital for energy planners. In this study, grey forecasting techniques with rolling mechanism (RM) have been used for modeling and predicting yearly net electrical energy consumption in Turkey. Three different grey models are generated to find the best model. The best grey model with RM is used for energy consumption forecasting from 2014 to 2030. Furthermore, the effect of RM is studied by comparing the obtained results with a Grey Model without RM. Results show nonhomogeneous Grey Model with RM improves forecasting accuracy.