MODELING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH


Appiah M., Gyamfi B. A., USMAN O., BEKUN F. V.

Singapore Economic Review, 2023 (SSCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1142/s0217590823500595
  • Dergi Adı: Singapore Economic Review
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, EconLit
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: asymmetries, Exchange rate, financial development, growth, NARDL, oil prices
  • İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Recent studies on the relationship between exchange rates, oil prices,ãnd economic growth in developing countries like Ghana have used linear methods, but do notãccount for potentialãsymmetries. This research investigates the intricateãsymmetric effects of exchange rates, financial development,ãnd oil prices on Ghana's growth from 1990-2017 usingã nonlinear model. The findings indicate that global oil price hasãsymmetric effects on short-ãnd long-term growth, with positive price changes having different impacts than negative changes. However, there is no evidence forãsymmetric long-term effects of exchange ratesãnd financial development on growth, only shorttermãsymmetries. The cumulative effects of exchange ratesãnd financial development outweigh oil prices. Recommendations include modernizing fuel efficiency, investing in renewable energyãnd public transit toãddress oil price shocks,ãnd increasing market transparencyãnd collaboration between major consumerãnd producer countries. The nonlinear model providesãn evidence-basedãnalysis of the intricateãsymmetric relationships between these factorsãnd developing country growth.