Global Energy Market Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Food Inflation

Balcilar M., Usman O.

Energy Research Letters, cilt.7, 2026 (Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 7
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.46557/001c.125871
  • Dergi Adı: Energy Research Letters
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Exchange rate pass-through, Food inflation, Global energy-related uncertainty
  • İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, we investigate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to food inflation for 39 countries during low and high global energy market uncertainties. Using data for the period 2010Q1 to 2022Q2 and a nonlinear panel threshold model, the study reveals that the ERPT to food inflation is 0.2021% for a 1% change in the local currency. This occurs only when global energy market uncertainty crosses a threshold level of 0.3851 (38.51%). The implication of our results is that the ERPT is incomplete and regime dependent. These findings could help the central banks to formulate an optimal monetary policy to reduce the vulnerability to external shocks, especially from the global energy markets.