Global Energy Market Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Food Inflation


Balcilar M., Usman O.

Energy Research Letters, vol.7, 2026 (Scopus) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 7
  • Publication Date: 2026
  • Doi Number: 10.46557/001c.125871
  • Journal Name: Energy Research Letters
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus
  • Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, Food inflation, Global energy-related uncertainty
  • İstanbul Ticaret University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to food inflation for 39 countries during low and high global energy market uncertainties. Using data for the period 2010Q1 to 2022Q2 and a nonlinear panel threshold model, the study reveals that the ERPT to food inflation is 0.2021% for a 1% change in the local currency. This occurs only when global energy market uncertainty crosses a threshold level of 0.3851 (38.51%). The implication of our results is that the ERPT is incomplete and regime dependent. These findings could help the central banks to formulate an optimal monetary policy to reduce the vulnerability to external shocks, especially from the global energy markets.