Tariffs and the transition: A study on the effects of global trade on energy mix diversification

Soto G. H., Zambrano-Monserrate M. A., USMAN O.

Energy Policy, cilt.210, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 210
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115003
  • Dergi Adı: Energy Policy
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Compendex, EconLit, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Energy mix, Energy transition, Quantile estimation, Tariffs, Trade, Trade barriers
  • İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This empirical investigation explores the relationship between international trade and the composition of the energy mix, encompassing nuclear, renewable, and fossil fuel energy sources. We propound four novel hypotheses: commercial dependence, asymmetric transition, tariff the transition, and tariff the externalities, which aims to provide better insights of the dynamics at play within the green transition. Our econometric analysis reveals that tariffs exert a heterogeneous impact on the energy mix, contingent upon a country's income level and the specific characteristics of the energy source. Notably, economic openness does not necessarily catalyze energy diversification, and a pronounced reliance on fossil fuels persists. Furthermore, the nature of trade balances, dichotomized into high and low value-added components, exhibits asymmetric patterns of energy mix adoption. We yield policy recommendations aimed at promoting sustainability in commerce, underscoring the relevance of trade policies tailored to the needs of countries with varying income levels and trade profiles.