An Application of Path Analysis in Gaugeing Stimulated Travel Demand

İnce E. C., Demir İ., Çelik H. M.

Mathematical Sciences and Applications E-Notes, cilt.10, sa.3, ss.159-169, 2022 (Scopus, TRDizin)

Özet

This article aims to designate a methodological baseline for gaugeing stimulated travel demand in urban areas in the case of İstanbul in addition to the intention of detecting the primary factors affecting motorized trips in urban spaces so as to re-formulate current travel demand management policies. In this sense, this article exhibits an investigation on gaugeing stimulated travel demand in the case of İstanbul by interrogating the inter-relationship between two variables called amount of trips and travel time. Such an empirical investigation is expected to construct a baseline for determining the optimum transportation project with regard to the concern of minimizing the amount of travel time spent by communities. At this juncture, an amount of applied econometric models for measuring stimulated travel demand were exhibited in detail. According to the results of path analysis as an advanced version of simultaneous equations system, approximately 27% decrease in travel time causes 71% additional increase in amount of trips in a day. That is to say, a ten minutes decrese in travel time will trigger 108,869 more motorized trips per day in İstanbul. This result once more reveals that unending supply of transportation infrastructure in urban areas causes a kind of vicious circle in the long run, which necessitates further travel demand management strategies in all over the world.