From Catalyst to Constraint: How Geoeconomic Fragmentation of Critical Mineral Chains Moderates OECD Countries' Energy Transition


Köksal C. (Yürütücü)

TÜBİTAK Projesi, 2224 - Yurt Dışı Bilimsel Etkinliklere Katılma Desteği Programı, 2025 - 2026

  • Proje Türü: TÜBİTAK Projesi
  • Destek Programı: 2224 - Yurt Dışı Bilimsel Etkinliklere Katılma Desteği Programı
  • Başlama Tarihi: Aralık 2025
  • Bitiş Tarihi: Nisan 2026

Proje Özeti

The transition to clean energy around the world is necessary to slow down climate change. This requires the quick and effective use of renewable energy technologies, which depend on very concentrated supply chains for critical minerals. Furthermore, policy-induced geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF), characterized by escalating trade barriers and strategic decoupling, introduces significant new uncertainties by targeting these essential mineral chains. This study examines the impact of critical mineral chain fragmentation on the rate of energy transition in OECD countries. Panel data methodology has been utilized to examine the diverse impact of GEF on critical mineral access at various phases of renewable energy adoption. These results show that geoeconomic fragmentation has been a two-edged sword for the OECD countries. Policymakers need to use targeted, conditional solutions as they need to understand that while decoupling of critical mineral supplies from key producers can help transitions to happen faster, it can also add a lot of cost and delay the arrival of mature clean energy leaders.