Karbon emisyonu, risk primi ve finansal göstergelerin dış ticaret üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesine yönelik ampirik araştırmalar

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Thesis Type: Doctorate

Institution Of The Thesis: İstanbul Ticaret University, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, ULUSLARARASI TİCARET ANABİLİM DALI, Turkey

Approval Date: 2026

Thesis Language: Turkish

Student: FATİH SELAMCI

Supervisor: Gencay Karakaya

Open Archive Collection: AVESIS Open Access Collection

Abstract:

Amidst intensifying globalization, international trade increasingly interacts with environmental sustainability, risk premiums, and financial indicators, exhibiting a complex structure. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the determinative role of environmental effects and financial stability on foreign trade through a holistic approach. In this context, the environmental and financial determinants of international trade are examined via a three-stage analysis using macroeconomic dynamics and advanced econometric methods. The first section analyzes the impact of carbon emissions on trade openness for the period 1994–2022 in E7 nations using Pedroni cointegration, DCCEMG, and AMG estimators. Results indicate a positive effect, validating the Environmental Heckscher-Ohlin theory and Pollution Haven Hypothesis in China, Russia, and Türkiye. The second section examines the effect of CDS premiums on Türkiye's exports via the A-ARDL model, for the period 2010–2023. Findings reveal that CDS negatively impacts exports in the short run, while the CPI and BIST 100 index drive exports in the long-run. The third section employs the Hatemi-J test to explore asymmetric causality between financial indicators and trade over the same period. Particularly, the impacts of banking sector profitability and real effective exchange rates diverge based on the direction of shocks. Ultimately, an integrated economic model prioritizing environmental sensitivity, risk management, and financial stability is posited to enhance trade sustainability.